In 2025, the domestic potato market underwent fluctuating adjustments, with staged volatility in planting area, output and prices. The overall industry development was under pressure, which also brought staged challenges to the production layout and market expansion of Hebei Junsheng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Junsheng Agricultural"). As the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, 2026 will be a critical cycle for the transformation and quality improvement of the potato industry, supported by continuous national agricultural policies, accelerated implementation of agricultural scientific and technological innovations, and optimized adjustment of market supply and demand structure. Based on the national industrial situation, regional resource endowments of Hebei Province, and Junsheng Agricultural’s practical experience, technological advantages and development demands in the potato industry, this paper makes a comprehensive forecast of the 2026 potato industry development trends. It aims to provide an accurate reference for the company to optimize planting layout, expand market space and enhance core competitiveness, helping it seize opportunities in industrial transformation.

 

 

In 2026, national potato planting will generally feature "stable reduction in area, improvement in per unit yield, and optimized varieties". The planting structure will transform toward large-scale, standardized and high-quality production, and the regional layout will further focus on core production areas, which will directly affect Junsheng Agricultural’s planting planning and variety selection.

 

In terms of planting area, affected by the poor market and low planting returns in 2025, the national potato planting area is expected to slightly shrink in 2026, with obvious regional differentiation. According to Zhuochuang Information, China’s potato planting area showed a fluctuating trend of "decrease-increase-decrease" from 2021 to 2025, reaching 55.5547 million mu in 2025, the second lowest in the past five years. Based on market research and industrial transmission laws, the national planting area is expected to drop to about 52 million mu in 2026, a decrease of 6.40% compared with 2025. By region, the southern winter planting area will slightly increase due to the off-season market advantage; the central plains double-cropping area (including Hebei, Shandong, Henan and other provinces) will see a significant reduction in planting area due to low planting returns and intensified land resource competition, which is highly relevant to the planting environment where Junsheng Agricultural is located; the northern single-cropping area is expected to start sowing successively in April, and its planting area will also decline due to constraints of planting costs, returns and land resources, indirectly affecting the national supply pattern of seed potatoes and commercial potatoes.

 

In terms of per unit yield, with the popularization and application of agricultural science and technology, the national potato yield per unit area is expected to rise steadily in 2026, providing important support for Junsheng Agricultural to make up for the impact of reduced planting area and improve planting benefits through technological empowerment. On the one hand, the coverage of virus-free seed potatoes and high-quality special varieties will continue to increase, effectively reducing the impact of diseases and insect pests and tapping yield potential; on the other hand, the wide promotion of modern agricultural technologies such as integrated water and fertilizer management, intelligent agricultural machinery and green prevention and control will further optimize planting management modes, improve production efficiency, and make up for the output gap caused by the reduction in planting area. Driven by the increase in per unit yield, the total national potato output in 2026 will decline slightly with the reduction of planting area, but will remain within a reasonable range to ensure the basic stability of market supply, laying a foundation for Junsheng Agricultural’s product sales.

 

In terms of variety structure, the guiding role of market demand will become more prominent, and the promotion of high-quality special varieties will accelerate, which is highly consistent with Junsheng Agricultural’s variety breeding and planting layout. Fresh-eaten varieties will upgrade toward "good taste, excellent appearance and storage tolerance", and the planting proportion of varieties suitable for fresh eating and export such as Holland No.15 and Atlantic will increase, matching Junsheng Agricultural’s demand for expanding fresh-eaten and export markets; the planting area of processing varieties (suitable for French fries, potato chips and starch processing) will steadily expand, easing the domestic dependence on imported processing potatoes and providing opportunities for Junsheng Agricultural to layout processing potato planting and extend the industrial chain. Meanwhile, disease-resistant, stress-resistant and highly adaptable varieties will be more favored by growers, especially drought-tolerant varieties in arid and semi-arid areas in northern China. As the core planting area of Junsheng Agricultural, the Bashang region of Hebei Province will enhance the anti-risk capacity of the company’s planting through the promotion of such varieties.

 

 

As a core province in the central plains double-cropping area, Hebei Province has a long history of potato planting. The Bashang region (Zhangbei, Weichang, Guyuan and other places), with its unique cool climate and sufficient sunlight, has become the core potato production area in the province, an important national seed potato breeding and commercial potato production base, and the core area where Junsheng Agricultural is deeply deployed. Combined with the national industrial trends in 2026 and the deployment of agriculture, rural areas and farmers work in Hebei Province, the potato industry in the province will feature "regional agglomeration, technological empowerment and brand upgrading", providing broad development space for Junsheng Agricultural to expand production scale and enhance core competitiveness.

 

In terms of planting layout, potato planting in Hebei Province will further gather in core production areas, and the Bashang region will remain the core planting area, highly consistent with Junsheng Agricultural’s core layout. According to the China Economic Database, the potato sown area in Hebei Province was 162.8 thousand hectares in 2024, with an output of 1.114 million tons, remaining relatively stable in recent years. Among them, the sown area of Weichang Manchu and Mongolian Autonomous County exceeded 700,000 mu, accounting for 21.8% of the total sown area of the province, with the output value of the entire industrial chain reaching 3.5 billion yuan; the planting area of Zhangbei County remained about 300,000 mu all year round, with a total output of 600,000 tons and an annual output value of over 1 billion yuan; Guyuan County has a perennial planting area of 409,600 mu, with an annual output of fresh potatoes exceeding 1.4 million tons, becoming a core industry driving farmers’ income growth. In 2026, with the implementation of the "Upgrading Project for the Whole Industrial Chain of Advantageous and Characteristic Industries" in Hebei Province, the large-scale potato planting bases in the Bashang region will further expand, and the standardized planting level will continue to improve, while the planting area in other non-core production areas in the province will gradually shrink, forming a layout pattern of "core agglomeration, peripheral supplementation". This trend will help Junsheng Agricultural further expand the scale of standardized planting bases and improve planting concentration and large-scale benefits by relying on the resource advantages of the Bashang core production area.

 

In terms of policy support, intensive policy dividends for agriculture, rural areas and farmers in Hebei Province will be released in 2026, providing strong support for the development of the potato industry and creating favorable conditions for Junsheng Agricultural to obtain policy support and achieve steady development. The provincial agricultural and rural work conference clearly proposed that in 2026, the province will implement the "Action for Large-Scale Improvement of Per Unit Yield of Grain and Oil Crops", increase investment in the matching of improved varieties, machines and methods, promote the upgrading of facility agriculture, develop smart agriculture, and strengthen the R&D and application of agricultural machinery and equipment, which is highly consistent with Junsheng Agricultural’s development direction of "technological empowerment". Meanwhile, as a pilot province for the extension of the second round of land contract, Hebei Province will further standardize the transfer of land management rights, removing institutional obstacles for large-scale and intensive potato planting and helping Junsheng Agricultural expand planting scale and reduce planting costs. In addition, policies for production and marketing connection, brand building and deep processing support for characteristic agricultural products will be further implemented, especially increasing support for the industrial chain of characteristic crops such as potatoes in the Bashang region, providing important opportunities for Junsheng Agricultural to obtain policy support and financial subsidies in seed potato breeding, deep processing and brand building.

 

In terms of scientific and technological application, the potato industry in Hebei Province will accelerate the transformation to intelligence and greening, providing opportunities for Junsheng Agricultural to give play to its technological advantages and achieve differentiated development. Virus-free seed potato breeding technology will be further popularized, and the independent research and development technology of virus-free micro potato production in Weichang and other places will be gradually promoted to improve the quality and yield of potatoes from the source, consistent with Junsheng Agricultural’s development direction of strengthening seed potato cultivation. Water-saving technologies such as integrated water and fertilizer management and drip irrigation will be widely used, meeting the requirements of agricultural water conservation in Hebei Province, which can not only reduce planting costs but also improve resource utilization efficiency, and can be directly applied to Junsheng Agricultural’s planting bases to improve planting benefits. Smart agricultural technologies such as intelligent agricultural machinery and remote sensing monitoring will be gradually implemented, promoting the transformation of potato planting from "manual management" to "intelligent control" and improving planting efficiency and management level. As an agricultural technology enterprise, Junsheng Agricultural can continue to make efforts in seed potato breeding, green planting and intelligent management relying on its own technological advantages, seize the commanding heights of industrial development and form core competitiveness different from its peers.

 

 

In 2026, the domestic potato market will usher in a bottom-out recovery, with prices generally showing a trend of "stable rise with seasonal fluctuations". The market supply and demand structure will be further optimized, and the feature of high quality and good price will become more obvious, providing important opportunities for Junsheng Agricultural to optimize product structure, expand markets and improve returns.

 

In terms of price trend, supported by the reduction of planting area and output, the annual average price of potatoes nationwide in 2026 will rise significantly compared with 2025, guaranteeing Junsheng Agricultural’s planting returns. It is predicted that the national annual average price of potatoes will reach 0.92 yuan per jin in 2026, an increase of 0.20 yuan per jin or 27.77% over 2025. Seasonally, in the first half of the year (January-June), prices will remain high due to the digestion of previous year’s inventory and the non-marketing of new potatoes, and Junsheng Agricultural can reasonably plan inventory to seize the high-price sales opportunity; from July to September, prices will stage a periodic decline with the successive listing of new potatoes, but the decline will be limited due to reduced output, and Junsheng Agricultural can achieve "high quality and good price" relying on high-quality varieties to reduce the impact of price fall; after October, prices will rise again with the end of new potato harvest, gradual inventory establishment and increased winter consumption demand, showing a seasonal characteristic of "high in the first half, stable in the middle and rising in the second half". Junsheng Agricultural can optimize production and marketing connection and improve overall returns in line with this rule.

 

In terms of market demand, fresh consumption will still dominate, while processing and export demand will continue to grow, becoming an important driving force for the market, which is highly consistent with Junsheng Agricultural’s market expansion direction. For fresh consumption, with the optimization of residents’ dietary structure, potatoes, as a nutritious and versatile vegetable, will further expand consumption scenarios, and household and catering consumption demand will maintain steady growth, supporting Junsheng Agricultural to promote high-quality fresh-eaten varieties and expand the fresh-eaten market. For processing consumption, the domestic potato processing conversion rate is currently about 20%, far lower than the 60%-70% level in developed countries, with huge room for improvement. In 2026, with the growth of demand for processed products such as frozen French fries, potato chips, whole powder and starch, the production capacity of processing enterprises will further release, and the demand for processing potatoes will steadily increase, driving up the price of processing potatoes and providing market support for Junsheng Agricultural to layout processing potato planting and extend the industrial chain.

 

In terms of export market, the upgraded Protocol of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 will be fully implemented in 2026, providing broad space for potato exports, especially benefiting potato export enterprises in Hebei Province and creating favorable conditions for Junsheng Agricultural to expand the export market. Potatoes and their products in Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province have been exported to 84 countries and regions, with the export value exceeding 1 billion yuan for the first time in 2025, including over 80,000 tons of frozen French fries, a record high. In 2026, relying on trade facilitation policies under the RCEP framework, potato exports from Hebei Province will further expand, especially to ASEAN, the Middle East and other regions, with fresh potatoes and processed products such as frozen French fries as the main export varieties. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to international market quality standards, trade barriers and other factors. Junsheng Agricultural needs to do a good job in product quality control and export qualification certification in advance to avoid export risks and steadily expand the international market.

 

In terms of regional market, as the core area of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development, Hebei Province will continue to have strong potato market demand, providing convenient conditions for Junsheng Agricultural to expand the local market. The share of Hebei vegetables in the Beijing market continues to rise, and potatoes, as an important vegetable variety, will further expand the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei market relying on convenient transportation advantages to achieve efficient production and marketing connection. Meanwhile, urban residents in the province have an increasing demand for high-quality, safe and green potatoes. Junsheng Agricultural can rely on its own technological advantages to create green, safe and high-quality potato products, accurately meet the provincial market demand and improve the local market share.

 

 

In 2026, the domestic potato processing industry will enter a critical stage of "quality improvement, efficiency enhancement and structural optimization". The processing conversion rate will continue to increase, the product structure will transform toward high added value and diversification, and the industrial cluster effect will be further prominent, providing important opportunities for Junsheng Agricultural to extend the industrial chain, improve product added value and realize transformation and upgrading.

 

In terms of processing conversion rate, with the continuous promotion of the national "potato staple food" strategy and the continuous upgrading of processing technology, the domestic potato processing conversion rate will further increase in 2026, approaching 25% and gradually narrowing the gap with developed countries. As a major potato producing area, Hebei Province will accelerate the development of processing industry, especially in the Bashang region, gradually forming a complete industrial chain of "seed potato breeding + commercial potato production + processing + storage + sales" to enhance the overall industrial competitiveness, providing a favorable environment for Junsheng Agricultural to integrate into the regional industrial chain and extend its own business. Relying on the processing industry foundation in the Bashang region, Junsheng Agricultural can gradually layout processing business, improve product added value and get rid of the low-end dilemma of "selling raw materials".

 

In terms of product structure, the pattern of "upgrading traditional products and rising emerging products" will take shape, in line with the trend of market consumption upgrading and providing direction for Junsheng Agricultural’s processing business layout. Traditional starch products will transform toward refinement and high-end, and the output of industrial products such as modified starch will continue to increase, which are widely used in papermaking, textile, pharmaceutical and other fields with stable market demand; leisure foods such as frozen French fries and potato chips will maintain rapid growth, while healthy processed products such as non-fried, low-sodium and high-protein products will become market hotspots, meeting residents’ healthy diet demand. Junsheng Agricultural can focus on such high value-added leisure processed products to create differentiated competitive advantages; potato staple food products (such as potato noodles, steamed buns, meal replacement powder, etc.) will be further promoted, expanding consumption scenarios and improving product added value, supporting Junsheng Agricultural to expand processing categories and market space.

 

In terms of industrial layout, processing enterprises will further gather in main production areas to form regional industrial clusters, providing convenience for Junsheng Agricultural to carry out cooperation and reduce processing costs. Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province has formed a certain potato processing industry foundation, and leading enterprises such as Xuechuan Agriculture have realized the whole industrial chain layout, developing more than 160 types of potato products and driving the development of regional processing industry. In 2026, with the continuous warming of the processing industry, more potato processing enterprises will emerge in the province, focusing on characteristic processing fields and forming a differentiated competition pattern. Meanwhile, processing enterprises will strengthen cooperation with planting bases to realize "order-based planting and standardized processing", ensuring the stability and quality of raw material supply and reducing production costs. Relying on its own planting base advantages, Junsheng Agricultural can establish long-term cooperative relations with regional processing enterprises to realize the coordinated development of "planting-processing", or independently layout processing business to improve the industrial chain layout.

 

 

Combined with the 2026 potato industry development trends, based on the regional advantages of Hebei Province, intensive policy dividends, and Junsheng Agricultural’s technological attributes and development foundation, the following targeted development suggestions are put forward to help the company avoid risks, seize opportunities, achieve high-quality development and seize opportunities in industrial transformation.

 

First, focus on core production areas, optimize planting layout and consolidate the production foundation. Relying on the resource advantages of the Bashang region (Zhangbei, Weichang, Guyuan and other places) in Hebei Province, further expand the scale of standardized planting bases, focus on cultivating virus-free seed potatoes and high-quality special varieties (fresh-eaten and processing types), prioritize varieties with good taste, storage tolerance, disease and stress resistance to improve planting yield and quality, in line with the market trend of "high quality and good price". Meanwhile, take advantage of the land transfer policy dividends in Hebei Province to promote large-scale and intensive planting, adopt standardized planting technology to reduce planting costs and improve planting benefits; establish a whole-process planting management and control system to ensure stable product quality and provide high-quality raw material support for subsequent market expansion and processing business.

 

Second, strengthen technological empowerment, enhance core competitiveness and create differentiated advantages. Increase investment in agricultural scientific and technological innovation, focus on promoting advanced technologies such as virus-free seed potato breeding, integrated water and fertilizer management, green prevention and control and intelligent agricultural machinery, improve the intelligent and green level of planting management, reduce planting risks and improve production efficiency. Strengthen cooperation with scientific research institutes in Hebei Province (such as Hebei Agricultural University, Hebei Academy of Agricultural Sciences) to carry out variety improvement and planting technology research and development, cultivate high-quality, high-yield and stress-resistant varieties suitable for the climate conditions of the Bashang region of Hebei Province, and build its own technological advantages; set up a professional technical team to provide technical guidance for planting bases, ensure the effective implementation of advanced technologies, and form core competitiveness different from peers.

 

Third, expand market channels, build high-quality brands and enhance market influence. Seize the opportunity of market recovery in 2026, accurately layout the market, and focus on expanding the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei local market and ASEAN export market. Relying on the customs clearance facilitation policy of Zhangjiakou Customs, improve export product qualification certification, standardize product quality control, and promote the quality and quantity improvement of fresh potatoes, frozen French fries and other export products; in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, rely on convenient transportation advantages to strengthen cooperation with large supermarkets, catering enterprises and agricultural product wholesale markets, establish stable production and marketing connection channels, and layout emerging channels such as e-commerce and live streaming to expand market coverage. Strengthen brand building, create a green, safe and high-quality potato brand, highlight the core selling points of "scientific and technological planting, high-quality Bashang", and enhance brand awareness and influence through brand promotion, production and marketing docking meetings to achieve high quality and good price.

 

Fourth, extend the industrial chain, improve added value and enhance risk resistance capacity. Relying on the development opportunities of the provincial processing industry, gradually expand potato primary processing and deep processing business, focus on developing high value-added products such as frozen French fries, potato chips and potato whole powder, realize the transformation from "selling raw materials" to "selling products" and improve the overall industrial efficiency. Strengthen cooperation with processing enterprises and cold chain logistics enterprises, improve the whole industrial chain layout of "planting-processing-storage-sales", solve product storage and transportation problems, and ensure product freshness and quality; explore the "order agriculture" model, sign long-term supply agreements with processing enterprises to stabilize raw material sales channels and avoid market price fluctuation risks.

 

Fifth, leverage policy support, strengthen multi-party cooperation and achieve steady development. Pay close attention to the support policies of the state and Hebei Province for the potato industry, assign special personnel to connect with relevant departments, and actively strive for policy support and financial subsidies in seed potato breeding, large-scale planting, deep processing and brand building to reduce development costs. Relying on the "Upgrading Project for the Whole Industrial Chain of Advantageous and Characteristic Industries" in Hebei Province, strengthen cooperation with the government, industry associations and leading enterprises, share industrial development dividends, learn advanced experience and improve its own development level; actively participate in industry exchange activities, understand the latest industrial dynamics, adjust development strategies in a timely manner and avoid industrial risks.

 

 

In 2026, the domestic potato industry will break away from the downturn in 2025 and usher in a critical development period of market recovery, structural optimization and quality improvement, and the pace of industrial transformation and quality improvement will further accelerate. As a major potato producing area, Hebei Province has huge industrial development potential by virtue of the resource advantages of the Bashang region, intensive policy dividends and a sound industrial foundation, providing broad space for the development of Junsheng Agricultural. For Junsheng Agricultural, 2026 is not only a key year to seize opportunities and achieve leapfrog development, but also a challenging year to cope with market competition and break through development bottlenecks. Only by basing on its own technological advantages, focusing on core businesses, optimizing planting layout, expanding market channels, extending the industrial chain and strengthening brand building can Junsheng Agricultural seize opportunities in industrial transformation, achieve large-scale and high-quality development, and contribute to the upgrading of the potato industry in Hebei Province and the increase of farmers’ income in the region.